As I’m sure you are now aware Donald Trump has won the U.S. Presidential election. It’s just after 8:00 am on Wednesday and I’ve been watching the results since early morning.
I’m always amazed at how “news” outlets slant “the news”, so it was telling that the Daily Mail (right leaning) called the result at 7:32 am on a 276 vs. 218 electoral vote victory, while the BBC (left leaning) couldn’t bring itself to “report” the result the same way.
At exactly the same time, actually a minute earlier at 7:31 am, the Beeb still had the results as a non-majority 245 vs. 218.
That’s a difference of 29 electoral votes won to the right-leaning Republican – or not – depending on which “news” site you visit at the same time. The RT (Russian) had it’s reporting somewhere in the middle at 07:26 am at 266 vs. 218. So, the BBC didn’t report the 22 extra Trump victories even though the Russians had already done so 5 minutes earlier. In the age of instant webpage updating, that’s an eternity in reporting etiquette. Interesting times.
I’m waiting for the left leaning news outlets to get hold of the following figures. It now becomes clear that 4% victory margins, such as in Brexit are huge and unequivocal wins in political terms. Because, when you look at the percentage of actual votes cast, Trump sweeps into the White House on a 47.79% vs. 47.41% percentage vote. That’s a 0.38% lead! (*according to The Daily Mail.)
And yet I suspect – unlike in Britain – three un-elected judges of the U.S. Supreme court will not rule in four months time that the House of Representatives needs to vote on it, in a case brought by Democrat voting business elites. Interesting times.
I’m pretty sure a voting British public won’t tolerate the replacement of an un-elected political oligarch by an un-elected judicial one. Whichever way one voted on June 23rd, we can all agree that the purpose of a Brexit victory was to regain the sovereignty of British democracy.
But never mind, if our MP’s vote in accordance with their electorate, which is 100% what an MP is employed to do in the first place – represent their electorate – the triggering of Article 50 will pass and then the door is not just closed but firmly locked against future foot-stamping. The E.C.B. and the E.U. is very ill. The E.U. economy is a sinking ship. We need to row away from that ship as fast as we collectively can and build our economic strengths globally, freely and urgently.
It is precisely this perceived and mirrored, sporadic failure of impartiality in both the media and American judiciary – and the heavily out of touch showbusiness elite – that is ironically one of the key sources of petrol behind such a win for a non-establishment figure such as Trump. Even the Guardian is saying it; [Hillary Clinton was] “a technocrat who offered fine-tuning when the country wanted to take a sledgehammer to the machine.”
One eye catching headline in the Telegraph surmised this morning, “How eight years of Barack Obama created Donald Trump.” Except this latter article was originally written in February 2016 by the erudite Simon Heffer and is re-published this morning as a prescient masterpiece. The key to electorate dissatisfaction remain exactly the same:
“The morning after Barack Obama was elected in November 2008, I put the television on in my hotel room in New York to watch the reaction. Fox News was putting on a brave face, though the sourness and anger were barely contained: but MSNBC, an avowedly liberal network, was in a state of almost convulsive ecstasy.
As dawn broke a woman, interviewed outside her run-down house somewhere upstate, shed tears while telling an interviewer what the victory meant for her. “I now know,” she sobbed, “that my house won’t be foreclosed on.” I hope she was right: but the evidence of the seven years since Obama the miracle-worker took office suggests she may have been disappointed.The financial crisis of 2008 – the collapse of Lehmann Brothers came between the conventions and polling day – was the last straw.
I had seen Obama at the primaries, and at the Democrat Convention. I had waited for him to speak intelligently and practically about the state of America and how he would put it right, but I waited in vain. The cliché at the time, which became more relevant later, was about how he campaigned in poetry but would govern in prose. Some prose can be magnificent: but not his. His oratory was vacuous. He is clever and has a way with words: but his words contained little.
As Lehmann’s sank, political leaders, including potential presidents, met to discuss what to do. Mr Obama said nothing: and the liberal media praised him for his silence, suggesting it showed his wisdom by reserving judgment on so complex a matter. Perhaps it did. Or perhaps it showed he didn’t have a clue. America’s slow, stumbling path to recovery, and its awesome level of debt – just under $19 trillion, or 104 per cent of GDP – suggest the latter. The great stimulus the Democrats then engineered disappeared and achieved nothing.”
The only noticeable change in the financial fundamentals over the last 18 months is that each has increased in difficulty and uncertainty.
And if there is one “anti-establishment” physical investment, if there is one wealth protector that sums up the “sledge-hammer to the machine” psyche, it is Physical Gold and Silver bars and coins. We have always written that Gold and Silver do well in times of political and economic uncertainty and we are now more in the thick of that than we were at any other time since I started writing for Bleyer in March 2011 as, in addition, the eurozone crumbles around us.
As predicted in last week’s piece for Bleyer, the Gold price rose almost vertical back up to £1065 per troy ounce this morning at 5:09 am from £1027 the night before. But, as I write, something very interesting is happening. The price is being pushed back down. Just an hour later at 6:00 am it had been pushed down to £1053. Interesting times.
As Market Watch wrote on September 14th, if Trump wins; “expect the price of gold and every other kind of safe haven to soar. It would certainly be dramatic, and possibly ugly as well. For the past year, most investors thought a Trump presidency was about as likely as Greece reclaiming its triple-A rating or Vladimir Putin handing Crimea back to Ukraine. Every political analyst and investment bank reassured its clients through the primaries that, sooner or later, the grown-ups would take back control of the Republican Party and agree on a more mainstream nominee.” (Matthew Lynn, Market Watch, 14th September 2016)
I became increasingly aware yesterday that the next four or five months will be tumultuous for American especially, and the globe indirectly. I hope for the very best but expect very difficult times for the U.S. and the global economy, because nothing has really changed. Global debt, deflation leading to inflation, Russia and America battling over the Middle East, the housing bubble, the bond bubble – these will all need to be solved and yet can they be? It’s akin to observing a monumental reserve echelon, descending down a ladder of disorder. Can any one person actually change that? Surely, to believe that is to be as naive as the lady believing her house won’t be repossessed because Obama won back in 2008.
The Independent reiterated the challenges facing the next U.S. President late last night, before the results started coming in this morning:
“Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Korea, the South China Sea, Europe, Nato, the Israel-Palestinian conflict, the stability of the Gulf states, the dollar as sole international reserve currency, the US Treasury as lender of last resort to the IMF and the global financial system….the list of US obligations to the rest of the world is formidable. Now that one of the bitterest campaigns in history has drawn to a close, here are some of the more pressing demands that will be demanding the 45th president’s attention, whether it’s Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton. It is a somewhat overflowing in-tray.” (The Independent, 8th November 2016)
Market Slant published a piece last week, on the same conclusion to which I arrived in Bleyer’s piece last week, that; “Gold will go up regardless of who is at the helm.” But, their article helpfully expanded the conclusion, to look at the different policies and how each will affect the manner in which Gold rises;
“Our own group of writers had concluded that it was irrelevant who the president was, the die was cast. A Hillary administration would be a continuation of QE like bucket kicking monetary policies. Asset prices would continue to inflate until every inviolable law of math was suspended with no real organic economic success. That in the least we’d get stagflation. A Trump presidency could bring with it more fiscal spending and building if he had his way. The former would result in a “reset” of sorts after the laws of math ring the bell. The latter, properly executed, will bring inflation as well.”
Watch out for a cavalcade of opinion pieces on how the U.S. economy will suffer now under Trump. But, to be fair, as the above piece states, the die for the U.S. economy was already cast. The U.S. dollar has been under threat from China as the world reserve currency, regardless of who is now at the helm. And 19 trillion dollars of national debt doesn’t disappear overnight. I hope for the very best.
In these changing times, many of our readers and clients are looking to include Gold in their portfolios. An auriferous investment basket is one which includes this historic monetary safe haven. As many of you will have noticed, banks have their weaknesses, and they are not always market driven. This week Tesco Bank lost £2.5 million of its customer’s money from a cyber attack, “Tesco Bank says it has paid out an estimated £2.5 million to 9,000 customers after it fell victim to a cyber attack at the weekend. The business said a full service for customers had resumed after the weekend hack that prompted a freeze in online transactions for customers. Accounts which saw money fraudulently removed will be reimbursed by Tuesday evening, the bank said.” (Metro, Wednesday 9th November 2016) If any of our readers are one of those 9000 we hope you now have your funds safely back in your account.
Having and holding one’s own Physical Gold and Silver coins and bars is a methodical way to take responsibility for one’s own wealth protection. Bleyer offer a wide variety of home safes and also secure storage within the U.K.
The BBC is now catching up and writes; “UK stocks have followed falls in Asian and European markets after Donald Trump won the US election. The FTSE 100 index initially fell 1.4% before paring the losses to a 0.3% drop at 6,824 points. Other major European stock markets are also lower, with money flowing into safe haven stocks, gold and currencies including the yen.”
We send our very best wishes to all our friends over the pond and hope for a smooth next few months. I think we in Britain are going to see America go through a very bumpy ride. But, that was always the case either way.
Do browse Bleyer’s selection of Gold and Silver bars and coins. Call one of the team for friendly assistance and bespoke customer care in these changing times. Physical Gold and Silver coins and bars have been an historical store of wealth in times of uncertainty and economic upheaval.